Truth v. The Machine » Archives » Casselman: The Right flirts with disaster

October 12th, 2007 by Gary M. Miller

Echoing the sentiments of our TvM colleague Pat Shortridge, Barry Casselman sees a red sky at morning for the right wing if Jim Dobson et al. move forward with their 3rd-party threat.

…just as the Republican Party has seemed to come up with a governing strategy and perhaps a winning candidate (or candidates) for 2008, the party base is acting like lemmings going over the political ledge.

The recent immigration debate is emblematic of this disaster, but the extent of the problem is not limited to it. Social conservatives, sensing that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani might actually win the Republican nomination, have desperately met and declared that they will walk out on the Republican Party if it nominates him or someone like him (e.g. John McCain, Mitt Romney, or possibly, Fred Thompson).

This is ludicrous on its face, since all of these candidates, regardless of their personal views, have pledged to nominate conservative judges to the federal bench and Supreme Court (the only place where a president has any real influence on social policy). All of the major or so-called first-tier Republican candidates are economic conservatives, and each of them is likely to reverse the ambivalent economic spending policies of the Bush administration, a legitimate grievance the party base does have.

The alternative, in real terms, is unthinkable in its consequences for conservatives, that is, a generation or more of unrelenting tax-and-spend economic policies, an increase of abortion-on-demand, unending interventionist liberal federal courts and a foreign policy that caves into international public opinion and weakens our military defense and national security.

If that is what the majority of voters in the nation want, of course, and make that plain in a national election, then that is what they should have.

But if part of the conservative base of the Republican Party walks out on its candidates, popularly chosen, it will lead to an electoral rout without precedent and deprive most American conservatives of the ability to affect American policies, possibly for decades.

Posted: October 12, 2007 at 4:47 pm
Under: 2008, conservatism | 2 Comments »

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2 Responses to “Casselman: The Right flirts with disaster”

Jeff Kouba Says:
October 12th, 2007 at 11:54 pm
I would only differ on one small point, and that is I’d say the President can influence social policy beyond just SC picks, though those are certainly of the highest importance.

Consider what President Bush has done to spark the debate over stem cell research, for instance.

There’s the bully pulpit. If he, ahem, had a high public approval rating, he could influence votes in Congress. And so on.
First Ringer Says:
October 13th, 2007 at 8:58 pm
The nightmare scenario: a well-known, politically connected conservative heads a third party ticket that gains ballot access in nearly all 50 states and gets significant funding for their effort. Plus, the GOP nominee is seen as potentially too moderate and essentially no different in the eyes of conservatives than the Democratic nominee. How in the world can the Republican win in 2000?

Yes, you read that right. Remember Pat Buchanan polling in the teens as a third party candidate in 1999? I doubt it. Remember his 50 state access thanks to Perot’s 1996 Reform Party bid? Unlikely. Remember him getting $12 million in federal funds? Kinda. Or do we remember him getting less than 1% and helping, in part, Bush taking Florida thanks to the “butterfly ballot” while becoming a national punchline?

Are Republicans really flirting with disaster with a third-party bid? No, but the rhetoric is worth keeping up if only to discourage an obviously politically stupid act. Still, the reality remains that, present polling numbers aside, very recent history suggests a conservative third-party bid will go absolutely nowhere and do nothing to hurt the eventual GOP nominee’s candidacy. Factor in the difficulties of securing ballot access and money to achieve such access in addition to campaigning, not to mention finding an actual candidate (Bauer? Keyes? Oh, please), and a third-party bid looks even more like the vanity project to end all vanity projects for a few prominent conservatives full of themselves and empty of much grassroots support.