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Romin’ Senate

Because it’s never too early to reach for the party favors or the Prozac when contemplating the 2010 U.S. Senate elections - TvM presents you with our giant, time-killing overview of all 36 races.

The outlook?  Grim.  But remember, as late as the day before the 2006 election, even MSNBC and the Washington Post had Republican senate candidates “surging” and GOP House losses as low as 10.  So hold your nose and your fears and let’s dive into an early look at 2010:

AlabamaRichard Selby (R).  A Dixiecrat Republican in the Heart of the South.  Does he even have to campaign?  Solid Republican.

AlaskaLisa Murkowski (R).  She survived charges of nepotism in 2004, barely beating former Gov. Tony Knowles.  But so far, the only “challenge” to Murkowski’s second term is the highly unlikely prospect of either Gov. Sarah Palin or Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell entering the primary.  No Democrat opponent appears on the horizon.  Solid Republican. 

ArizonaJohn McCain (R).  Six more years.  Yawn.  Solid Republican.

ArkansasBlanche Lincoln (D).  Lincoln has a small bank account and didn’t completely destroy an opponent she outspent by $6.4 million in 2004.  Ex-US Attorney and White House aide Tim Griffin has been rumored to run, which would mark an improvement over the Arkansas GOP’s 2008 candidate – nobody.  Favors Democrat.

CaliforniaBarbara Boxer (D).  The possible entrance of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger into the race has the tongues of California political wonks wagging, even though Arnold’s approval rating has dropped and he now trails by 9% in a hypothetical match-up.  It may be a moot point as conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore has locked up most of the Golden State’s Republican endorsements.  Schwarzenegger’s set to return to “acting” with Sly Stallone’s mammoth movie “The Expendables” starring an All-Star cast of former A-List action heroes.  Would he really give it up again to serve in the Senate?  Solid Democrat – Lean Democrat if Arnold runs.

ColoradoMichael Bennet (D).  The retreat of Ken Salazar to the Interior took a previously unlikely GOP pick-up back on the map.  But the two Republicans who polled well against the otherwise strong Salazar – fmr. Gov. Bill Owens and Hall-of-Famer John Elway – aren’t in while weaker candidates are.  Without a top-notch recruit, increasingly blue Colorado will re-elect Bennet.  Favors Democrat.

ConnecticutChris Dodd (D).  Let’s not repeat ourselves.  Toss-up, for the moment. 

DelawareOpen (D).  Likewise, we’ve been here recently.  Solid Democrat / Lean Democrat if Mike Castle or Tom Wagner run.

FloridaOpen (R).  And the Meek shall inherit the Senate?  Rep. Kendrick Meek looks to be the Democrat’s candidate while Florida’s GOP awaits the word of increasingly moderate Gov. Charlie Crist to avoid a bitter primary.  Ex-House Speaker Marco Rubio is probably the strongest Republican candidate in a field that doesn’t include a Crist or a Bush.  Lean Republican.

GeorgiaJohnny Isakson (R).  All the attention in Georgia is on the open Governor’s race.  Despite Saxby Chambliss’ close call in 2008, Democrats aren’t likely to get a good challenger.  Rep. Paul Broun Jr. is a rumored Democrat, but seems a long-shot to run.  Solid Republican.

HawaiiDaniel Inouye (D).  Inouye’s 86 and going for term number nine.  Only GOP Gov. Linda Lingle might make this a race, and since she’s term limited, it’s possible but unlikely.  Solid Democrat.

IdahoMike Crapo (R).  The most recent opponent Crapo’s had is prostate cancer as the Democrats didn’t even field a candidate in 2004.  Unless he retires, he’s returning to Washington.  Solid Republican.

IllinoisRoland Burris (D).  We’ve been here before, but Burris is bound and determined to keep State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias from getting an easy path to DC.  If Reps Mark Kirk or Pete Roskam make bids in Illinois’ scandal-plagued environments, they’ll find a warmer-than-usual reception for a Republican candidate.  Leans Democrat.

IndianaEvan Bayh (D).  With $11 million in the bank, it’s Evan for Evah.  Solid Democrat.

IowaChuck Grassley (R).  If he keeps calling for the deaths of business executives, maybe Grassley will have an interesting 2010.  Until then, this Grassley is an Iowa weed – impossible to yank out.  Solid Republican.

KansasOpen (R).  It’s the year of the GOP primary in Kansas.  With retiring Sen. Sam Brownbeck and Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh dueling it out for governor, Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are fighting for Senate with second-tier interest.  No Democrat has stepped forward yet.  Solid Republican.

KentuckyJim Bunning (R).  Bunning’s the Jack Morris, circa Game Seven of the 1991 series, of the GOP Senate Caucus – he’s refusing to get pulled.  Despite bizarre statements and behavior, Bunning refuses to step aside.  ‘04 nominee Dan Mongiardo nearly won last time and looks to finish the job.  But a host of major Kentucky Democrats, including Rep. Ben Chandler, AG Jack Conway and others are eyeing the race with interest too.  Bunning needs a walk-off home run to win this game, and unfortunately this former pitcher only hit 7 his entire career.  Toss-up.

LouisianaDavid Vitter (R).  Only in Louisiana does sleeping with an escort not immediately end your political life.  Of course, this is the state that elected Huey Long after he had been impeached.  Everyone mentions Vitter among the vulernable Republicans, but a credible Democrat has yet to surface.  Leans Republican.

MarylandBarbara Mikulski (D).  Not even Michael Steele with Steve Jobs’ bank account is getting her out.  Solid Democrat.

MissouriOpen (R).  Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has a family dynasty and a clear primary to help her flip this seat to the Democrats.  Republicans are divided between fmr State Treasurer (and ‘08 gubernatorial candidate) Sarah Steelman and Rep. Roy Blunt.  The Blunt name has been, well, dulled by fmr Gov. Matt Blunt’s tenure.  Unless something changes, this is Carnahan’s race to lose.  Lean Democrat.

NevadaHarry Reid (D).  He’s a lightening rod for bad press and his approval rating was at 38% before the Stimulus bill.  But before the GOP starts playing “Tom Daschle, the Sequel” in their heads, they might want to find an actual opponent.  Fmr Rep. Jon Porter has been rumored but Reid has $2.7 million in his account and can likely count on millions more from outside of Nevada.  Leans Democrat.

New HampshireOpen (R).  Democrat Rep. Paul Hodes has a clear path to November of 2010 and thanks to the lack of many major Republicans left in New Hampshire, a clearer path to Washington as well.  Most of the names mentioned on the GOP side are retreads.  Leans Democrat. 

New York - Schumer (D) & Gillibrand (D)  Which one do you want first?  Chuck Schumer’s 2010 looks as easy as possible thanks in part to the trainwreck nomination of Kirsten Gillibrand.  Every Democrat in the Empire State is circling the carcus of Gillibrand’s candidacy while the New York GOP is hoping that either Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki can be convinced to run uphill.  Gillibrand’s biggest hope is that a divided field of primary opponents allows her to squeak through.  Schumer – Solid Democrat.  Gillibrand – Favors Democrat.

North CarolinaRichard Burr (R).  Much has been made over Burr’s 35% approval rating by the notoriously far-left Public Policy Polling group.  But the poll also showed an astonishing 33% with no opinion of the first-term senator.  Is North Carolina being represented by Claude Rains?  That the 35% figure might not sink Burr can be seen by the same poll’s match-up against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall.  Burr wins 43% to 35%.  Still, not exactly a heady victory, especially when most think that AG Roy Cooper will oppose Burr instead.  Leans Republican.

North DakotaByron Dorgan (D).  We now know what happens when an unstoppable force (Gov. John Hoeven) meets an unmovable object (Byron Dorgan) in a hypothetical poll - the unmovable object wins 57% to 35%.  Solid Democrat.

OhioOpen (R).  For a change in this 2010 line-up, it’s Democrats beating each other up in a primary.  Ex-Budget Director Rob Portman has gotten the backing of most of the GOP establishment.  Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has similar backing, but has to either convince Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner to step aside or beat her outright.  But Portman still has his work cut out for him – his name ID is relatively low compared to his opponents and it shows with him getting clobbered by double digits.  Toss-up.

OklahomaTom Coburn (R).  Unless outgoing Gov. Brad Henry decides to take the gamble, the Doctor is in.  Solid Republican.

OregonRon Wyden (D).  Wyden’s closest senate election was defeating Gordon Smith by 1% in 1996.  It’s going to stay that way.  Solid Democrat.

PennsylvaniaArlen Specter (R).  53% of Pennsylvania voters say they want someone else and that number is probably even higher among GOP primary voters.  ‘04 challenger Pat Toomey is probably the strongest opponent in the field right now until Democrat AG Jack Wagner decides whether or not to run.  Pennsylvania’s trending bluer and even if Specter survives, he’s no longer a shoe-in.  After New Hampshire, this might become the most likely GOP seat to flip if it’s Toomey vs. Wagner.  Toss-up.

South CarolinaJim DeMint (R).  DeMint is golden for re-election.  Nuff said.  Solid Republican.

South DakotaJohn Thune (R).  Democrat Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin just became a mother and probably didn’t ask for a tough U.S. Senate race for her baby shower.  Solid Republican.

UtahBob Bennett (R).  Bennett has an interesting primary challenge in David Leavitt, brother of ex-Gov. Mike Leavitt.  And that’s about as interesting as statewide Utah elections get.  Solid Republican. 

VermontPat Leahy (D).  Will he even have a Republican opponent?  Solid Democrat.

WashingtonPatty Murray (D).  Washington’s gotten even bluer (what hasn’t?) and Murray has token opposition.  Solid Democrat.

WisconsinRuss Feingold (D).  Feingold represents precisely the sort of seat that Republicans need to target to gain ground in ‘10 - a “toss-up”esque state with an incumbent whose politics are largely hard left.  But Feingold’s got $2.4 million on hand and his 11% crushing of 2004 candidate Tim Michels has probably disinterested the few major Republicans left in Wisconsin.  Where’s Tommy Thompson when you need him?  Solid Democrat.


Posted: March 24, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Under: 2010, US Senate | 6 Comments »


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6 Responses to “Romin’ Senate”

  1. M E Courtney Says:

    RE: New York: Schumer and Gillibrand
    All the action and excitement is with the Gillibrand 2010 election – anything can happen and just about everyone might be running in a primary against her because she is the new kid on the block.
    Schumer, on the other hand, is the standard and very boring re-election of an entrenched incumbent that none would dare to primary because he keeps producing.
    Ah, New York State – we yield to the obvious.

  2. Jeff Says:

    NoDak Repubs have been after Hoeven for a long time. He is probably the best/only hope for the GOP. I gotta believe that poll isn’t anywhere close to describing how Hoeven would do. It’s Daily Kos! Though, as a native, it pains me to see NoDakanianiters trudge to polls election after election and keep sending Dorgan and Conrad to DC.

  3. First Ringer Says:

    Jeff, I’m sure that if they polled Dorgan v. Hoeven for Governor, Hoeven would be sizably ahead. And while DailyKos did pay for the poll, Research 2000 performed it and they’ve at least been a fair polling outfit.

    Hoeven’s flirted with a Senate candidacy for so long, I’ll be a little surprised if he ever does it. But if the year progresses and things look good for the GOP, I’m sure he’ll take another moment to consider his options.

  4. Truth v. The Machine » Archives » Left Behind Says:

    [...] a month ago, Specter’s seat looked among the most likely of the GOP seats to flip, as not only did conservative favorite Pat Toomey look to be the primary victor but [...]

  5. Truth v. The Machine » Archives » You’ll Be Comin’ Down Says:

    [...] Dems Chill on Burr: Richard Burr (R-NC) certainly looks weak in early polling, but the heavyweight of North Carolina’s Democrat, AG Roy Cooper, has surprisingly decided to [...]

  6. Truth v. The Machine » Archives » Romin’ Senate, Part II Says:

    [...] in March, TvM dubbed the GOP’s 2010 Senate prospects as “grim” but with the caveat that things could – and would – [...]

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