My opinion is...hold on, I can't read your handwritting

Vying to be the Great Union Emancipator, Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln hedges her own re-election.

With the Razorback State’s GOP in disarry and Democrats holding every major legislative branch and office in the state, short one Congressional seat, the odds of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) facing a competitive re-election looked slimmer than Twiggy on Atkins.  As national Republican hopes of luring Mike Huckabee away from the addictive glow of TV coverage faded, so to did it seem the last viable alternative to another six years of Arkansas being the Land of Lincoln.

Instead, Lincoln is polling at a 45% approval rating and holding single digit leads against two unknown and undeclared Republican opponents.  Even Democrats are acknowledging Lincoln faces a difficult 2010 campaign:

“They’re very determined to run someone against Sen. Lincoln. I don’t know who that will be, but they are very determined,” Pryor told POLITICO last week.

Arkansas insiders say one big problem is that Lincoln — who defeated an underfunded and little-known state legislator in 2004 by an underwhelming 12-point margin — doesn’t have a high profile despite serving three terms in the House and a decade in the Senate.

“She has not had a lot of presence in the state over the years,” said Ernie Dumas, an Arkansas Times columnist and longtime observer of Arkansas politics. “She just doesn’t have the potent personality that [former Sen. Dale] Bumpers and [former Sen. David] Pryor had.”

Lincoln’s low profile isn’t the only thing that’s hurting her.  Arkansas has one of the lowest percentages of union-affiliated workers in the country at only 5.9% of the state’s workforce.  Only five other states have a significantly lower number of unionized employees.  Yet Lincoln is one of the biggest supporters of card check legislation, co-sponsoring the 2007 version of the bill.  When considering that even 84% of union employees support a closed ballot system (based off of a 2007 Zogby poll), it’s litte wonder that Lincoln is hedging on whether or not to support the 2009 edition of the bill to which she once proudly attached her name.  Unfortunately for Lincoln, with both of Arkansas’ senators favoring the legislation and unions smelling blood in the water, the issue is staying in the forefront, with union “rallies” gaining TV time back home.

But Lincoln’s biggest liability may be the politician who remains an asset to most Democrats – Barack Obama.  Barely above water in terms of popularity (at 47% to 45%, approval/disapproval), Obama actually did worse than John Kerry in Arkansas.  And with Arkansas’ Dixiecratesque love of fiscal moderation and social conservatism, Obama’s Swedish-socialist-on-shore-leave budget is leaving many residents cold. 

“It is hard to appeal to poor, rural voters on an economically populist basis when your president is bailing out big corporations,” said John Brummett, a political columnist for the Arkansas News Bureau.

Obama’s policies leave Lincoln with yet another stark choice – either buck the President and suffer the wrath of national Democrats, or support someone who got only 39% of the vote and hope a GOP candidate can’t get traction.  With such options, it’s little wonder Lincoln is such a great vacillater.